WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump look to repeat their past Michigan primary victories on Tuesday, when they each face opponents who haven’t yet won a contest this year but also show no indication of dropping out.
Biden is fending off a challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who has done little so far to slow the president’s path to renomination, while Trump faces another head-to-head match-up with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. While Biden and Trump are strong favorites to win in Michigan, state and party rules create complications on both sides.
For Biden, a more significant factor on Tuesday than Phillips may be an effort by some Arab Americans and progressive activists to urge primary voters to cast their ballots for “uncommitted” in protest of Biden’s stalwart support of Israel over the war in Gaza.
The effort has the backing of Rep. Rashida Tlaib, former Rep. Andy Levin and local leaders from throughout southeastern Michigan, including Dearborn, where nearly 55% of residents are of Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, according to Census figures.
On the Republican side, the primary is just the first step in a two-part process to win delegates. Less than a third of the state’s 55 Republican delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday. The remainder will be won at 13 congressional district meetings that will be held March 2. Complicating that process is an ongoing dispute within the Michigan Republican Party in which the current and former state party chairs are planning rival events to allocate delegates on the same day. Trump has backed the faction led by former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who was recently recognized by the Republican National Committee as the new chairman.
Four years ago, the Michigan primary was held on what would become the last primary date before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic and a national public health emergency. In that contest, Biden defeated Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont by 17 points, dealing his sole remaining rival for the nomination a major blow. Sanders dropped out of the race a month later. Trump, running as the incumbent, received 94% of the vote. In 2016, he won a four-way contest by 12 points against a much more competitive field.
Here’s a look at what to expect in Michigan:
PRIMARY DAY AND DISTRICT CONVENTION DAY
The Michigan presidential primary will be held on Tuesday. Polls close statewide at 8 p.m. local time. Most of the state closes at 8 p.m. ET, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the Central time zone and close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.
The Michigan Republican Party will also hold congressional district conventions on March 2 to award additional delegates to the presidential candidates.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will provide coverage for both the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. They are the only statewide contests on the ballot. The candidates on the Democratic ballot are Biden, Phillips and former candidate Marianne Williamson. The Republican ballot includes Haley, Trump, Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, as well as former candidates Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy. Voters in either primary may cast their ballot for “uncommitted.”The AP will also allocate GOP delegates based on the Republican congressional district conventions on March 2. The only result reported for these events will be the number of national convention delegates each presidential candidate has won.
WHO GETS TO VOTE
Any registered voter in Michigan may participate in either primary. Michigan does not register voters by party. Voters will be asked to indicate in writing which party’s primary they wish to participate in, and the choice is recorded. For the March 2 GOP district conventions, only about 2,000 precinct delegates elected in the August 2022 state primary may participate. Voting by the general public is not permitted at this event.
WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE
There were about 8.1 million voters registered in Michigan as of April 2023, the last update available. Turnout for the 2020 presidential primaries was 21% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 9% in the Republican primary. In the 2016 primaries, turnout was 16% of registered voters in the Democratic race and 18% in the Republican race. In the 2022 state midterm primaries, about 1.1 million voters cast their ballots before Election Day, or about 55% of the total vote. That was up from the approximately 804,000 votes – about 35% of all votes – cast before Election Day in the 2020 presidential primaries.As of Friday, more than 913,200 votes had already been cast in the 2024 presidential primaries.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2020 presidential primary, the AP first reported results at 8:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after the first polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 4 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. It was roughly the same time frame for the 2022 Republican primary for governor.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there will be 252 days until the November general election.
