Like polling from other battleground states, the race for the White House remains close in Wisconsin. But fresh numbers out this week show some momentum shifts.
In early July, ARRP released survey results in Wisconsin following the debate between President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump. At that point, Trump had a six-percentage point lead among voters 18 and up in the Badger State. Fast forward to September, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Trump by a single point for that same demographic in a new Wisconsin poll conducted after their debate.
Pollster Bob Ward described what specifically changed following the summer shakeup on the Democratic ticket.
"The movement among Independents, where Trump was ahead of Biden by five points two months ago, and now Harris is ahead by 11 points," he explained.
The single-point lead for Harris is for a head-to-head matchup question. It's slightly larger when factoring in third-party candidates. However, among Wisconsin voters 50 and older, Trump is ahead by two points. He also maintains more support among male voters around the state, while Harris is strongly backed by women in this latest poll.
The Biden administration has touted its efforts to reduce prescription drug costs for Medicare enrollees, including price negotiations with drugmakers. There's been chatter among Republicans about rolling back those provisions. But Ward said based on the polling data, tinkering with those moves would not sit well with voters.
"We asked this question back in July in Wisconsin, and again here in this poll, and the choice between, you know, supporting a member of Congress who wants to continue negotiating lower drug prices is at 79% - versus support for the member who wants to end negotiating for lower drug prices, [which is] 8%," he said.
The balance of power in the U.S. Senate also is being closely watched this election. In the AARP Wisconsin poll, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin holds a three-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde among all likely voters.
