Walking the trails at CAVOC in Rhinelander, there’s a few brown and yellow leaves scattered on the ground, but ones on the trees are almost entirely still a bright green.
It’s a bit of surprising for mid-September in the Northwoods, especially after some trees in the region started popping red last month.
“My best guess is we just haven't had the cool nights side of things. Like this week, we had our first frost warning, so that was kind of the first night where we were really getting that lower temperature cold enough to probably start to signal some of that further color development,” said Eil Anoszko, a forest ecologist and silviculturist with the Wisconsin DNR based out of Rhinelander.
Up until this week the overnight lows have been in the mid-50s to low 60s. Normal for the beginning of September is upper 40s.
Decreasing daylight and weather factor into when we’ll see colors, what colors we see, how vibrant they’ll be, and how long they’ll stick around.
“Optimal growing conditions for trees generally lead to more bright and vibrant fall colors, whereas stressful conditions can lead to kind of more dull and more muted colors,” said Anoszko.
Northern Wisconsin and the Western U.P. have been in drought conditions for much of the summer. Now, the region is forecasted to have a warmer and wetter fall than average.
“The summer conditions are really going to kind of set the table for the type of color that we might get. Again, that vibrancy. Unfortunately, this year with the drought conditions that we had, I would expect that the colors might be a little bit more muted this year,” said Anoszko. “The onset, that's kind of more triggered by the day to day, week to week weather patterns that we've had more recently. The recovery in rain that we've had recently probably will help color development a little bit, or at least I'm hoping it will.”
Climate change could impact fall foliage in different ways. Drought and heat stress and early summer warming can lead to leaves falling sooner. Colors tend to be less vibrant when the nights don’t get as cold. The warm weather, like we’re seeing now, can also lead to later starts and longer time the leaves are on the trees.
Growing the fall tourism season
How good the fall colors are, how long they stick around, and weather throughout the Autumn months can all impact the Northwoods economy.
Travel Wisconsin and local tourism organizations are working to build up the fall tourism season.
Oneida County Tourism Council Chair and Three Lakes Area Visitors Bureau Executive Director Jacqui Sharpe says the longer they can keep people coming to the Northwoods, the better economic impact they can have on communities.
“We see a lot of people in the summer just naturally, right? Like I don't think any of us can hold a whole lot more people in the month of July,” said Sharpe. “But it's hard for our partners and our businesses and our locals to make a living just on a very short summer season.”
Outdoor recreation, chasing fall colors, and fall events, like Three Lakes’s Oktoberfest, Minocqua’s Beef-A-Rama, and Eagle River’s Cranberry Fest, help draw in visitors.
“There are not enough weekends to accommodate all of the festivals that happen up here in the fall,” said Sharpe.
But unlike the summer months, where resorts and hotels can be booked months if not a year in advance, tourists and even second homeowners sometimes wait to see how the weather is looking and what the fall colors are doing before deciding to come up.
“We try to create events that are an exciting enough draw that people will want to come, rain or shine, but it's very hard this time of year,” said Sharpe. “September/October can be beautiful. It could be rainy. It could be snowy. You plan your event no matter what, and then you kind of just cross your fingers and hope that the weather cooperates.”
The unpredictably around weather adds a challenge to running a business.
Coontail has locations in Boulder Junction and Arbor Vitae selling and renting outdoor gear and equipment.
General Manager Stephen Coon says the fall season has gotten busier over the years.
“We were kind of all talking in the store. Usually, in years past, after Labor Day, that first week is a little bit of a lull, but it's just maintained its busyness, and it just seems like more people have stuck around or are coming up just for a few days or a weekend,” said Coon. “Obviously, kids start school, so you don't get all the families coming up that you do in the summertime, but just a lot of couples or retired groups that are coming through.”
Coon says bike rentals are popular this time of year, especially with their Boulder Junction location being right on the trails. It’s also a time of year that’s extremely weather dependent for the business.
“One day the weather will be a little crummy and we won't rent a single bike in our rental store. Then the next day the sun comes out and we rent 50 bikes. It's just so dependent on weather,” said Coon. “It's that time of year where people are content just kind of hauling up in their house and drinking coffee, reading a book, and then when the sun shines, they want to go out and play.”
Fall colors also play a role.
Coon says milder, warmer falls where the leaves stick around keep visitors coming, but that can change in an instant when a cold, windy day comes through and knocks them all down.
“As we get into late September, early October, that's where you'll see the biggest fluctuation in terms of the leaves,” said Coon. “Everybody's trying to chase the peak, so they're making their plans to come up here when it's peak colors.”
While it can certainly be hit or miss trying to time a trip with beautiful weather during peak fall colors—it’s worth it for those warm, sunny days where the woods shine with hues of reds, oranges, yellows, and browns.
“In my mind, it's the best time of the year to be up here if somebody can swing it,” said Coon.
Travel Wisconsin regularly updates a Fall Color Report to help plan trips. The Smoky Mountain Fall Foliage Prediction Map currently expect October 6th to be around when colors peak in the Northwoods.
